As Vladimir Lenin said, there are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen. What makes our times particularly turbulent is that we are simultaneously at the late stages and transitional moments of three big cycles: Carlota Perez's technological revolutions / financial capital cycle (50-60 years) Strauss–Howe generational cycle (80-100 years) Ray… Continue reading The Great Turnings
Category: Current Affairs
The Beginning of the End
The other day I was reading Albert Camus' classic The Rebel. His exposition of Nietzsche's philosophy pretty much sums up my state of mind amidst these turbulent times - think in terms of an apocalypse to come, not in order to extol it, but in order to avoid it and transform it into a renaissance. To… Continue reading The Beginning of the End
Is Bitcoin a Technology or Ideology?
To accurately characterise Bitcoin and predict its trajectory in the decade ahead, it helps to revisit the message embedded in its genesis block: “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”. Bitcoin kicked off the blockchain revolution and became a poster child of fintech. Over time, it is regarded as a monetary… Continue reading Is Bitcoin a Technology or Ideology?
Martin Luther and Satoshi Nakamoto
October 31 is a day celebrated around the world in many different cultures. It originates from the ancient Celtic spiritual tradition of Samhain, and has always been a symbol of death and renewal. It turns out that history is filled with landmark events on this date which propel human civilization forward. On October 31, 1517,… Continue reading Martin Luther and Satoshi Nakamoto
The Free Trade Hypocrisy
It is a very common clever device that when anyone has attained the summit of greatness, he kicks away the ladder by which he has climbed up, in order to deprive others of the means of climbing up after him. In this lies the secret of the cosmopolitical doctrine of Adam Smith, and of the… Continue reading The Free Trade Hypocrisy
The Birth of Tragedy
Charlie Chaplin said, "Life is a tragedy when seen in close-up, but a comedy in long-shot." Reading chapters from Gibbon's Decline and Fall, and Trump's press conference, you will conclude that a nation's decline is the reverse - it is a close-up comedy and long-shot tragedy. Trump has turned White House into reality comedy shows.
The Spirit of 1776 vs. The Spirit of 2016
The Spirit of 1776, by Archibald Willard, represents the zeitgeist of the American Revolution. It refers to the attitude of self-determination and individual liberty. The Spirit of 2016, by David Parkins for The Economist, typifies the global sentiment following the election of Donald Trump as US president. It is an unsettling zest for tribalism and authoritarianism.
The Anglo-Russian Rivalry
It's sad to see how much the Anglo-Russian rivalry has degraded. It used to be about the Eastern Question over the Ottoman Empire, the Great Game in Central Asia, the Cambridge Spy Ring. Today it's about the respective countries' hooligans rioting in football games during Euro 2016. We live in a mediocre age.
The Political Logic of China’s GDP Growth Target
I'm a political analyst, not an economist. But in many situations, it's more than enough for me to understand the logic behind the Chinese economy. As an important example: in the March 2016 National People's Congress session, why did Xi Jinping set 6.5% as the GDP growth target for the next 5 years? This number… Continue reading The Political Logic of China’s GDP Growth Target
Andy Yee 